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Every refresh adds a point, so you can watch the matchup swing day to day.
Final margin, simulated
So far vs expected
Expected
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=
Hot:
Cold:
Early-season weeks usually run a few percent cold against last season's averages.
| Player | Proj | |
|---|---|---|
|
OUT
DTD
|
DNP out |
Numbers = points scored (struck through = didn't count). Shaded % = how often the player starts in the simulations, given the remaining cap.
How accurate is the predictor?
Brier score
Lower is better. Coin flip = 0.250
Pregame favorite won
Forecast before the week starts
Pregame Brier
Before any games are played
Forecasts tested
Calibration
When it says 70%, does that team win about 70% of the time?
Accuracy by day of the week
Forecasts sharpen as games get played and the cap gets used.
Standings
Expected wins = what your scores would earn against the whole league each week (all-play). Luck = actual minus expected.
| # | Team | W-L | PF | PA | All-play | Exp. W | Luck | Coaching | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Champion In progress |
Actual vs expected wins
A long gap means the schedule helped or hurt more than the scores did.
Weekly scores
One team against the league average each week.
Luck leaderboard
Wins above or below what each team's weekly scores earned in all-play.
Opponent luck
How many points per week your opponents scored compared with the league average that week. Red = you kept running into hot teams.
Schedule swap
Each row is a team's record if it had played the schedule of the team in each column. The outlined diagonal is the real record.
Fewer winsMore wins
Every matchup
Bad beat 💀 = lost with a top-half score. Lucky win 🍀 = won with a bottom-half score.
| Wk | Team | Score | Opponent | Opp | Would beat | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W L 💀 Bad beat 🍀 Lucky win |
Worst bad beats
Highest-ranked weekly scores that still lost.
None this season.
Biggest upsets
Winners the predictor gave the lowest chance before the week started.
Injury & rest luck
Average points lost when a team's top-10 players sat out games their NBA team played.
Expected points aren't available for this season yet.
How a score is broken down: we start from what each roster was expected to score before the week, using each player's
projected average and chance to play (same model as the predictor, using only information known at the time). Then we add, step by step:
availability (who actually played), roster moves (pickups and drops),
lineup & cap (which games you actually used vs. the best use of the cap), breakouts (players who were simply better or worse this season than expected going in) and hot/cold (week-to-week swings around each player's own season average; close to zero over a season).
The steps always add up exactly to the real score.
⚠ Lower confidence: there's no earlier season to base projections on, so breakouts are overstated this year.
Season breakdown
Regular-season totals. Expected record = every matchup re-decided with each player at his season average in the games you used, i.e. with week-to-week hot and cold swings removed.
| Team | Pregame exp. | Availability | Moves | Lineup | Breakouts | Hot/cold | Actual | Exp. W-L | W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League average |
Green/red = better/worse than the league-average team. Availability tends to run slightly negative league-wide (stars miss a bit more time than their recent play rate suggests), and roster moves positive (streaming adds value), so compare teams against the average row.
Where each team's points came from
Season total of each step versus the pregame expectation.
One matchup, step by step
From the pregame expectation to the final score.
· Coldest:
Games flipped by hot & cold players
| Wk | Winner | Score | Expected | Who flipped it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Breakouts, hot & cold players
Games that counted for this team. Breakout = season average vs. expected going in. Hot/cold = points vs. his own season average. Minimum 3 games.
| Player | Team | G | Actual | Expected | Breakout | Hot/cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calibration check: across the league this season, players' season averages came in
versus what was expected going in, so the starting expectations were fair if that's near zero. League-wide hot/cold averaged
per team-week (always close to zero by design).
How the Coaching Rating works: for every week we find the best lineup each team could have set using only the players on its roster each day,
respecting positions, daily lineup slots and that week's games cap. Rating = points actually scored ÷ that best possible total (regular season).
Coaching Rating
Share of the best possible points each team actually captured.
Points left on the bench
Season total of best possible minus actual.
Week-by-week lineup efficiency
Percent of the best possible score captured. Hover a cell to see the biggest missed starts.
Less efficient100%
Coaching losses
Losses the team's own best possible lineup would have won.
| Wk | Team | Scored | Best possible | Opponent | Opp scored | Biggest missed starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No coaching losses this season.
How the cap works: each week's cap = 38 games per 7 NBA game days, rounded (for example, 6 game days → 33, the 14-day All-Star week with 8 game days → 43).
The league treats it as a hard stop, so any week over the cap is flagged below.
Weekly games cap
Only caps that differ from the usual week are labeled. Faded bars are playoff weeks.
Cap usage
Regular season. "Unfillable" = cap games a roster physically couldn't use (not enough players with NBA games), and the same for that team's opponents.
| Team | Used | Use % | Unfillable | Opp unfill. | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – |
Unused games by week
Games left on the table under each week's cap. "·" = used the full cap.
0More unused
Over-cap ledger · all seasons
Weeks where a team used more games than the cap (ESPN counts every game on the day the cap is crossed). Gentleman's-agreement watch.
| Season | Wk | Team | Owner | Games | Over by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🏆
All-time franchise table
Franchises follow the owner across team names and seasons. Records are regular season.
| Franchise | Seasons | W-L | Win % | 🏆 | Finals | Playoffs | Avg finish | All-play | Luck | Coaching |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franchise timeline
Final placement each season.
Team names change; the owner stays the same.
| Season | Team | W-L | PF | Exp. W | Luck | Coaching | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Champion In progress |
All-time head-to-head
Row franchise's record against each column franchise, regular season and playoffs.
Losing recordWinning record
Record book
Single weeks of 7 days or fewer, all seasons.